Development, roll-out and implementation of an antimicrobial resistance training curriculum harmonizes delivery of in-service training to healthcare workers in Kenya.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an increasingly severe threat to global public health that requires action across different sectors. Selection of appropriate antimicrobials is an urgent challenge due to the emergence of drug resistance. In 2017, Kenya developed an AMR policy and National Action Plan to drive prevention and containment of AMR. A priority activity under AMR surveillance strategic objective was to develop a national AMR training curriculum for in-service healthcare workers. In this paper we discuss the development process, gains achieved through implementation across the country and lessons learned. Methods: An initial stakeholders' forum was convened to brainstorm on the process for developing the curriculum and some issues deliberated upon include the design approach, development roadmap, curriculum outline and scope, delivery, and evaluation methodologies. A dedicated team of subject matter experts (SMEs), drawn from the project and government ministries, compiled the initial draft of the curriculum and later the training materials. A series of other stakeholders' meetings were convened to review these materials. The National Antimicrobial Stewardship Interagency Committee (NASIC) of the MOH in Kenya identified a team of experts from academia, research, and government to work with the SMEs in reviewing and providing valuable inputs to the curriculum. Additionally, principles of adult learning and a One Health approach for development were considered as AMR has drivers and impacts across sectors. A validation workshop was held to finalize the documents with a formal launch conducted during the World Antibiotics Awareness Week of 2020. Results: A multisectoral AMR surveillance training curriculum and facilitator and trainee manuals were developed and endorsed by MOH and Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives within one year. Over 500 healthcare workers in 19 counties were trained, with overwhelming adoption by other stakeholders in Kenya and beyond. Conclusion: This curriculum was developed to standardize training for AMR detection and surveillance. The central role played by the MOH ensured expeditious development and roll-out of this curriculum. The in-service curriculum, now available on an e-learning platform, provides a ready opportunity to build capacity of healthcare professionals. Additional resources are needed to standardize and scale these efforts to reach all healthcare workers.

Building a functional national One Health platform: the case of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The USAID Preparedness and Response (P&R) project's publication on Multisectoral Coordination that Works identified five dimensions most critical to creating effective and sustainable One Health platforms: political commitment, institutional structure, management and coordination capacity, technical and financial resources, and joint planning and implementation. This case study describes Tanzania experience in using these dimensions to establish a functional One Health platform. The main objective of this case study was to document the process of institutionalizing the One Health approach in Tanzania. METHODS: An analysis of the process used to establish and institutionalize the MCM in Tanzania through addressing the five dimensions mentioned above was conducted between August 2018 and January 2019. Progress activity reports, annual reports and minutes of meetings and consultations regarding the establishment of the Tanzania national One Health platform were examined. Relevant One Health publications were studied as reference material. RESULTS: This case study illustrates the time and level of effort required of multiple partners to build a functional multi-sectoral coordinating mechanism (MCM). Key facilitating factors were identified and the importance of involving policy and decision makers at all stages of the process to facilitate policy decisions and the institutionalization process was underscored. The need for molding the implementation process using lessons learnt along the way -- "sailing the ship as it was being built" -- is demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: Tanzania now has a functioning and institutionalized MCM with a sound institutional structure and capacity to prevent, detect early and respond to health events. The path to its establishment required the patient commitment of a core group of One Health champions and stakeholders along the way to examine carefully and iteratively how best to structure productive multisectoral coordination in the country. The five dimensions identified by the Preparedness and Response project may provide useful guidance to other countries working to establish functional MCM.

Post-Ebola Awakening: Urgent Call for Investing in Maintaining Effective Preparedness Capacities at the National and Regional Levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The 2014 Ebola outbreak reminded us of the importance of preparedness for addressing health security threats. Learning from this experience, we aim to (1) enhance the understanding of preparedness by policy and decision makers, (2) discuss opportunities for Africa to invest in the prevention of health security threats, (3) highlight the value of investing in preventing health security threats, and (4) propose innovations to enhance investments for the prevention or containment of health security threats at the source. METHODS: We used observations of governments' attitudes towards investing in preparedness for health security prevention or containment at the source. We conducted a literature review through PubMed, the World Wide Web, and Mendeley using the keywords: "health emergency financing", "investing in health threats prevention", and "stopping outbreaks at the source". RESULTS: Countries in sub-Saharan Africa invest inadequately towards building and maintaining critical capacities for preventing, detecting, and containing outbreaks at the source. Global health security emergency funding schemes target responses to outbreaks but neglect their prevention. Governments are not absorbing and maintaining adequately capacity built through GHS, World Bank, and development aid projects - a lost opportunity for building and retaining outbreak prevention capacity. RECOMMENDATIONS: Governments should (1) allocate adequate national budgets for health honouring the Abuja and related commitments; (2) own and maintain capacities developed through International Development Aids, OH networks, research consortia and projects; (3) establish a regional health security threats prevention fund. The global community and scientists should (1) consider broadening existing health emergency funds to finance the prevention and containment outbreaks at the source and (2) Strengthen economic analyses and case studies as incentives for governments' budget allocations to prevent health security threats.

Multisectoral prioritization of zoonotic diseases in Uganda, 2017: A One Health perspective.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic diseases continue to be a public health burden globally. Uganda is especially vulnerable due to its location, biodiversity, and population. Given these concerns, the Ugandan government in collaboration with the Global Health Security Agenda conducted a One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization Workshop to identify zoonotic diseases of greatest national concern to the Ugandan government. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization tool, a semi-quantitative tool developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was used for the prioritization of zoonoses. Workshop participants included voting members and observers representing multiple government and non-governmental sectors. During the workshop, criteria for prioritization were selected, and questions and weights relevant to each criterion were determined. We used a decision tree to provide a ranked list of zoonoses. Participants then established next steps for multisectoral engagement for the prioritized zoonoses. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated how criteria weights impacted disease prioritization. RESULTS: Forty-eight zoonoses were considered during the workshop. Criteria selected to prioritize zoonotic diseases were (1) severity of disease in humans in Uganda, (2) availability of effective control strategies, (3) potential to cause an epidemic or pandemic in humans or animals, (4) social and economic impacts, and (5) bioterrorism potential. Seven zoonotic diseases were identified as priorities for Uganda: anthrax, zoonotic influenza viruses, viral hemorrhagic fevers, brucellosis, African trypanosomiasis, plague, and rabies. Sensitivity analysis did not indicate significant changes in zoonotic disease prioritization based on criteria weights. DISCUSSION: One Health approaches and multisectoral collaborations are crucial to the surveillance, prevention, and control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Uganda used such an approach to identify zoonoses of national concern. Identifying these priority diseases enables Uganda's National One Health Platform and Zoonotic Disease Coordination Office to address these zoonoses in the future with a targeted allocation of resources.

Risk Factors for Sustained Cholera Transmission, Juba County, South Sudan, 2014.

We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for the 2014 cholera outbreak in Juba County, South Sudan. Illness was associated with traveling or eating away from home; treating drinking water and receiving oral cholera vaccination were protective. Oral cholera vaccination should be used to complement cholera prevention efforts.

High burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in young children in rural western Kenya, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children <5 years of age. OBJECTIVES: To facilitate evaluation of the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction in western Kenya, we estimated baseline rates of rotavirus-associated hospitalization and mortality among children <5 years of age. METHODS: From January 2010 to December 2011, we collected demographic, clinical and laboratory data for children <5 years of age seeking care at the district hospital and 2 outpatient facilities within a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). Children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE), defined as ≥3 loose stools and/or ≥1 episode of unexplained vomiting followed by loose stool within a 24-hour period, were asked to provide a stool sample for rotavirus ELISA testing. Rates of rotavirus-associated hospitalization and mortality were estimated using time of residence in the HDSS to calculate person-years of observation. To estimate the rotavirus-associated mortality rate, we applied the percentage positive for rotavirus among AGE hospitalizations to verbal autopsy estimates of diarrhea deaths in the HDSS. RESULTS: There were 4991 hospitalizations of children <5 years of age; 1134 (23%) were for AGE and stool specimens were obtained from 790 (70%). Rotavirus was detected in 211 (27%) specimens. Among 4951 <5 outpatient sick visits, 608 (12%) were for AGE; 320 (51%) provided specimens and 62 (20%) were positive for rotavirus. Rotavirus AGE accounted for 501 <5 hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years of observation. Rotavirus-associated <5 mortality was 136 deaths per 100,000 person-years of observation. CONCLUSIONS: Continued surveillance of rotavirus AGE will provide timely data on the population-level impact of rotavirus vaccine following its likely introduction in 2014.

National surveillance data on the epidemiology of cholera in Kenya, 1997-2010.

BACKGROUND: Kenya has experienced multiple cholera outbreaks since 1971. Cholera remains an issue of major public health importance and one of the 35 priority diseases under Kenya's updated Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy. METHODS: We reviewed the cholera surveillance data reported to the World Health Organization and the Kenya Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation from 1997 through 2010 to determine trends in cholera disease for the 14-year period. RESULTS: A total of 68 522 clinically suspected cases of cholera and 2641 deaths were reported (overall case-fatality rate [CFR], 3.9%), affecting all regions of the country. Kenya's largest outbreak occurred during 1997-1999, resulting in 26 901 cases and 1362 deaths (CFR, 5.1%). Following a decline in disease occurrence, the country experienced a resurgence of epidemic cholera during 2007-2009 (16 616 cases and 454 deaths; CFR, 2.7%), which declined rapidly to 0 cases. Cases were reported through July 2010, with no cases reported during the second half of the year. About 42% of cases occurred in children aged <15 years. Vibrio cholerae O1, serotype Inaba, was the predominant strain recorded from 2007 through 2010, although serotype Ogawa was also isolated. Recurrent outbreaks have most frequently affected Nairobi, Nyanza, and Coast provinces, as well as remote arid and semiarid regions and refugee camps. DISCUSSION: Kenya has experienced substantial amounts of reported cases of cholera during the past 14 years. Recent decreases in cholera case counts may reflect cholera control measures put in place by the National Ministry of Health; confirmation of this theory will require ongoing surveillance.

Assessing parents' knowledge and attitudes towards seasonal influenza vaccination of children before and after a seasonal influenza vaccination effectiveness study in low-income urban and rural Kenya, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccine is rarely used in Kenya, and little is known about attitudes towards the vaccine. From June-September 2010, free seasonal influenza vaccine was offered to children between 6 months and 10 years old in two Population-Based Infectious Disease Surveillance (PBIDS) sites. This survey assessed attitudes about influenza, uptake of the vaccine and experiences with childhood influenza vaccination. METHODS: We administered a questionnaire and held focus group discussions with parents of children of enrollment age in the two sites before and after first year of the vaccine campaign. For pre-vaccination focus group discussions, we randomly selected mothers and fathers who had an eligible child from the PBIDS database to participate. For the post-vaccination focus group discussions we stratified parents whose children were eligible for vaccination into fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. RESULTS: Overall, 5284 and 5755 people completed pre and post-vaccination questionnaires, respectively, in Kibera and Lwak. From pre-vaccination questionnaire results, among parents who were planning on vaccinating their children, 2219 (77.6%) in Kibera and 1780 (89.6%) in Lwak said the main reason was to protect the children from seasonal influenza. In the pre-vaccination discussions, no parent had heard of the seasonal influenza vaccine. At the end of the vaccine campaign, of 18,652 eligible children, 5,817 (31.2%) were fully vaccinated, 2,073 (11.1%) were partially vaccinated and, 10,762 (57.7%) were not vaccinated. In focus group discussions, parents who declined vaccine were concerned about vaccine safety or believed seasonal influenza illness was not severe enough to warrant vaccination. Parents who declined the vaccine were mainly too busy [251(25%) in Kibera and 95 (10.5%) in Lwak], or their child was away during the vaccination period [199(19.8%) in Kibera; 94(10.4%) in Lwak]. CONCLUSION: If influenza vaccine were to be introduced more broadly in Kenya, effective health messaging will be needed on vaccine side effects and frequency and potential severity of influenza infection.

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya: comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. RESULTS: The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. CONCLUSION: Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability.

Molecular epidemiology of geographically dispersed Vibrio cholerae, Kenya, January 2009-May 2010.

Numerous outbreaks of cholera have occurred in Kenya since 1971. To more fully understand the epidemiology of cholera in Kenya, we analyzed the genetic relationships among 170 Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates at 5 loci containing variable tandem repeats. The isolates were collected during January 2009-May 2010 from various geographic areas throughout the country. The isolates grouped genetically into 5 clonal complexes, each comprising a series of genotypes that differed by an allelic change at a single locus. No obvious correlation between the geographic locations of the isolates and their genotypes was observed. Nevertheless, geographic differentiation of the clonal complexes occurred. Our analyses showed that multiple genetic lineages of V. cholerae were simultaneously infecting persons in Kenya. This finding is consistent with the simultaneous emergence of multiple distinct genetic lineages of V. cholerae from endemic environmental reservoirs rather than recent introduction and spread by travelers.

Relationship of climate, geography, and geology to the incidence of Rift Valley fever in Kenya during the 2006-2007 outbreak.

We estimated Rift Valley fever (RVF) incidence as a function of geological, geographical, and climatological factors during the 2006-2007 RVF epidemic in Kenya. Location information was obtained for 214 of 340 (63%) confirmed and probable RVF cases that occurred during an outbreak from November 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007. Locations with subtypes of solonetz, calcisols, solonchaks, and planosols soil types were highly associated with RVF occurrence during the outbreak period. Increased rainfall and higher greenness measures before the outbreak were associated with increased risk. RVF was more likely to occur on plains, in densely bushed areas, at lower elevations, and in the Somalia acacia ecological zone. Cases occurred in three spatial temporal clusters that differed by the date of associated rainfall, soil type, and land usage.

Epidemiology of respiratory viral infections in two long-term refugee camps in Kenya, 2007-2010.

BACKGROUND: Refugees are at risk for poor outcomes from acute respiratory infections (ARI) because of overcrowding, suboptimal living conditions, and malnutrition. We implemented surveillance for respiratory viruses in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya to characterize their role in the epidemiology of ARI among refugees. METHODS: From 1 September 2007 through 31 August 2010, we obtained nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) specimens from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and tested them by RT-PCR for adenovirus (AdV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza viruses (PIV), and influenza A and B viruses. Definitions for ILI and SARI were adapted from those of the World Health Organization. Proportions of cases associated with viral aetiology were calculated by camp and by clinical case definition. In addition, for children < 5 years only, crude estimates of rates due to SARI per 1000 were obtained. RESULTS: We tested specimens from 1815 ILI and 4449 SARI patients (median age = 1 year). Proportion positive for virus were AdV, 21.7%; RSV, 12.5%; hMPV, 5.7%; PIV, 9.4%; influenza A, 9.7%; and influenza B, 2.6%; 49.8% were positive for at least one virus. The annual rate of SARI hospitalisation for 2007-2010 was 57 per 1000 children per year. Virus-positive hospitalisation rates were 14 for AdV; 9 for RSV; 6 for PIV; 4 for hMPV; 5 for influenza A; and 1 for influenza B. The rate of SARI hospitalisation was highest in children < 1 year old (156 per 1000 child-years). The ratio of rates for children < 1 year and 1 to < 5 years old was 3.7:1 for AdV, 5.5:1 for RSV, 4.4:1 for PIV, 5.1:1 for hMPV, 3.2:1 for influenza A, and 2.2:1 for influenza B. While SARI hospitalisation rates peaked from November to February in Dadaab, no distinct seasonality was observed in Kakuma. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory viral infections, particularly RSV and AdV, were associated with high rates of illness and make up a substantial portion of respiratory infection in these two refugee settings.

An investigation of a major outbreak of Rift Valley fever in Kenya: 2006-2007.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) occurred in Kenya during November 2006 through March 2007. We characterized the magnitude of the outbreak through disease surveillance and serosurveys, and investigated contributing factors to enhance strategies for forecasting to prevent or minimize the impact of future outbreaks. Of 700 suspected cases, 392 met probable or confirmed case definitions; demographic data were available for 340 (87%), including 90 (26.4%) deaths. Male cases were more likely to die than females, Case Fatality Rate Ratio 1.8 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3-3.8). Serosurveys suggested an attack rate up to 13% of residents in heavily affected areas. Genetic sequencing showed high homology among viruses from this and earlier RVF outbreaks. Case areas were more likely than non-case areas to have soil types that retain surface moisture. The outbreak had a devastatingly high case-fatality rate for hospitalized patients. However, there were up to 180,000 infected mildly ill or asymptomatic people within highly affected areas. Soil type data may add specificity to climate-based forecasting models for RVF.

Risk factors for severe Rift Valley fever infection in Kenya, 2007.

A large Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in Kenya from December 2006 to March 2007. We conducted a study to define risk factors associated with infection and severe disease. A total of 861 individuals from 424 households were enrolled. Two hundred and two participants (23%) had serologic evidence of acute RVF infection. Of these, 52 (26%) had severe RVF disease characterized by hemorrhagic manifestations or death. Independent risk factors for acute RVF infection were consuming or handling products from sick animals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-3.61, population attributable risk percentage [PAR%] = 19%) and being a herds person (OR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20-2.63, PAR% = 11%). Touching an aborted animal fetus was associated with severe RVF disease (OR = 3.83, 95% CI = 1.68-9.07, PAR% = 14%). Consuming or handling products from sick animals was associated with death (OR = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.07-12.64, PAR% = 47%). Exposures related to animal contact were associated with acute RVF infection, whereas exposures to mosquitoes were not independent risk factors.

Pathologic studies on suspect animal and human cases of Rift Valley fever from an outbreak in Eastern Africa, 2006-2007.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important viral zoonotic disease in Africa with periodic outbreaks associated with severe disease, death, and economic hardship. During the 2006-2007 outbreaks in Eastern Africa, postmortem and necropsy tissue samples from 14 animals and 20 humans clinically suspected of RVF were studied with histopathologic evaluation and immunohistochemical (IHC) assays. Six animal and 11 human samples had IHC evidence of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) antigens. We found that extensive hepatocellular necrosis without prominent inflammatory cell infiltrates is the most distinctive histopathologic change in liver tissues infected with RVFV. Pathologic studies on postmortem tissue samples can help establish the diagnosis of RVF, differentiating from endemic diseases with clinical manifestations similar to RVF, such as malaria, leptospirosis, or yellow fever.

Rift Valley fever outbreak in livestock in Kenya, 2006-2007.

We analyzed the extent of livestock involvement in the latest Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak in Kenya that started in December 2006 and continued until June 2007. When compared with previous RVF outbreaks in the country, the 2006-07 outbreak was the most extensive in cattle, sheep, goats, and camels affecting thousands of animals in 29 of 69 administrative districts across six of the eight provinces. This contrasted with the distribution of approximately 700 human RVF cases in the country, where over 85% of these cases were located in four districts; Garissa and Ijara districts in Northeastern Province, Baringo district in Rift Valley Province, and Kilifi district in Coast Province. Analysis of livestock and human data suggests that livestock infections occur before virus detection in humans, as supported by clustering of human RVF cases around livestock cases in Baringo district. The highest livestock morbidity and mortality rates were recorded in Garissa and Baringo districts, the same districts that recorded a high number of human cases. The districts that reported RVF in livestock for the first time in 2006/07 included Kitui, Tharaka, Meru South, Meru central, Mwingi, Embu, and Mbeere in Eastern Province, Malindi and Taita taveta in Coast Province, Kirinyaga and Murang'a in Central Province, and Baringo and Samburu in Rift Valley Province, indicating that the disease was occurring in new regions in the country.

High mortality in a cholera outbreak in western Kenya after post-election violence in 2008.

In 2008, a cholera outbreak with unusually high mortality occurred in western Kenya during civil unrest after disputed presidential elections. Through active case finding, we found a 200% increase in fatal cases and a 37% increase in surviving cases over passively reported cases; the case-fatality ratio increased from 5.5% to 11.4%. In conditional logistic regression of a matched case-control study of fatal versus non-fatal cholera infection, home antibiotic treatment (odds ratio [OR] 0.049; 95% CI: < 0.001-0.43), hospitalization (OR, 0.066; 95% CI, 0.001-0.54), treatment in government-operated health facilities (OR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.015-0.73), and receiving education about cholera by health workers (OR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.018-0.96) were protective against death. Among 13 hospitalized fatal cases, chart review showed inadequate intravenous and oral hydration and substantial staff and supply shortages at the time of admission. Cholera mortality was under-reported and very high, in part because of factors exacerbated by widespread post-election violence.

Epidemiology and risk factors for serogroup X meningococcal meningitis during an outbreak in western Kenya, 2005-2006.

The epidemiology of serogroup X meningococcal meningitis in Africa is unknown. During a serogroup X meningococcus outbreak in Kenya, case finding involved record review at health facilities and interviews with health workers and community leaders in West Pokot district. An age- and location-matched case-control study for risk factors was done. From December 2005 to April 2006, 82 suspect cases of meningitis were reported; the epidemic threshold was surpassed within two administrative divisions. Most (58%) cases were 5-24 years old; the case-fatality ratio was 21%. Serogroup X meningococcus was the most common serogroup - 5 (63%) of eight isolates serogrouped. Living in the same compound as another case, preceding upper respiratory tract infection and cooking outside the house were significant risk factors for disease. Serogroup X meningococcus caused an outbreak with similar epidemiology and risk factors as other serogroups. Serogroup-specific laboratory-based surveillance for meningococcus in Africa to detect serogroup X disease should be enhanced.

Using a field quantitative real-time PCR test to rapidly identify highly viremic rift valley fever cases.

Approximately 8% of Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases develop severe disease, leading to hemorrhage, hepatitis, and/or encephalitis and resulting in up to 50% of deaths. A major obstacle in the management of RVF and other viral hemorrhagic fever cases in outbreaks that occur in rural settings is the inability to rapidly identify such cases, with poor prognosis early enough to allow for more-aggressive therapies. During an RVF outbreak in Kenya in 2006 to 2007, we evaluated whether quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) could be used in the field to rapidly identify viremic RVF cases with risk of death. In 52 of 430 RVF cases analyzed by qRT-PCR and virus culture, 18 died (case fatality rate [CFR] = 34.6%). Levels of viremia in fatal cases were significantly higher than those in nonfatal cases (mean of 10(5.2) versus 10(2.9) per ml; P < 0.005). A negative correlation between the levels of infectious virus particles and the qRT-PCR crossover threshold (C(T)) values allowed the use of qRT-PCR to assess prognosis. The CFR was 50.0% among cases with C(T) values of <27.0 (corresponding to 2.1 x 10(4) viral RNA particles/ml of serum) and 4.5% among cases with C(T) values of >or=27.0. This cutoff yielded 93.8% sensitivity and a 95.5% negative predictive value; the specificity and positive predictive value were 58% and 50%, respectively. This study shows a correlation between high viremia and fatality and indicates that qRT-PCR testing can identify nearly all fatal RVF cases.